Predictions on this site
Everything people predict here, newest first. Updates every few seconds.
Last 14 days
Most asked-about places last 30 days
All predictions
Published questions appear on the public Predictions page and in "What people are asking" on the homepage. Unpublishing a question takes all its runs off both; its share links keep working for the people who have them.
Accuracy
Mark questions YES or NO once their outcome is known. Each is scored on its first forecast. See the public track record
Which forecast works best Brier score, lower is better
Calibration forecast vs how often it happened
To resolve
Forecast a list of questions
One question per line, up to 50. Pick questions whose answer isn't known yet, each with a clear yes/no outcome. They run one after another in the background.
Recently resolved
AI settings
Connect the AI model used for event predictions. The API key is stored on the server and is never sent back to the browser.
Any OpenAI-compatible API works, and Replicate too. Pick a provider to fill in its URL and a suggested model, then paste your API key.
Site, limits & sharing
Protect your AI budget. Only event forecasts call the AI; reused answers are free and don't count. Use 0 to turn a limit off.
Settings saved here reset when the server restarts without a persistent disk. To make them permanent, set PREDICTR_LIMIT_PER_HOUR, PREDICTR_DAILY_CAP, PREDICTR_CACHE_HOURS, PREDICTR_TRENDING, PREDICTR_AUTO_PUBLISH, PREDICTR_DOWNLOAD, PREDICTR_TIMESERIES and PREDICTR_TABULAR (on/off), and PREDICTR_SITE_NAME in your host's environment.